Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the 'Paris Agreement' to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 ◦C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15 % yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57 %). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders

Multivariate sensitivity analysis for a large-scale climate impact and adaptation model

We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a surrogate model to replace the expensive computer model. To improve the computational efficiency and performance of the model, compactly supported correlation functions are used. The goal is to generate sparse matrices, which give crucial advantages when dealing with large datasets, where we use cross-validation to determine the optimal degree of sparsity. This method was combined with a robust adaptive Metropolis algorithm coupled with a parallel implementation to speed up the convergence to the target distribution. The method was applied to a multivariate dataset from the IMPRESSIONS Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP2), an extension of the CLIMSAVE IAP, which has been widely applied in climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments. Our empirical results on synthetic and IAP2 data show that the proposed methods are efficient and accurate for global sensitivity analysis of complex models

Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors

The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end ( 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) using an integrated assessment model. Results show that there are only minor differences in most impact indicators for the 2020s time slice, but impacts are considerably greater under high-end than low-end climate change in the 2050s and 2080s. For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%. Including socio-economic scenarios (SSPs 1, 3, 4, 5) results in considerably greater variation in the magnitude, range and direction of change of the majority of impact indicators than climate change alone. In particular, socio-economic factors much more strongly drive changes in land use and food production than changes in climate, sometimes overriding the differences due to low-end and high-end climate change. Such impacts pose significant challenges for adaptation and highlight the importance of searching for synergies between adaptation and mitigation and linking them to sustainable development goals

Technological confirmation that low doses of medium chain fatty acids can arrest alcoholic fermentation to produce sweet wines in milder conditions

The usual technology for sweet white wine production requires the cessation of the alcoholic fermentation before its completion by lowering the temperature in the fermentation tank under 8-10 °C, racking the wine off the lees and adding high doses of sulphur dioxide, usually 150 mg/L or more. This process is energy-consuming and can end up introducing more sulphur dioxide in the wine than in the case of dry wine production. An alternative method for stopping the alcoholic fermentation and producing wines with natural residual sugar is the treatment of the fermenting must with medium chain fatty acids (MCFAs), immediately after a racking off the lees. In this industrial trial 10 mg/l MCFAs were used, in the form of octanoic acid, decanoic acid or 1:1 mixture, respectively, in combination with a low dose of SO2 (60 mg/L). The treatments were performed at the normal temperature used in white wines for a controlled alcoholic fermentation (15 ºC), without decreasing the temperature any further. A control wine variant was also produced by applying the classical technology with temperature reduction at 8 ºC and addition of 150 mg/L SO2. All the variants were prepared in triplicate, at industrial scale, in 1000 L stainless steel tanks. The must, obtained from Tămâioasă românească grapes with an initial sugar content of 261 g/L, was inoculated with ERSA 1376 yeast. The results showed that all the treatments applied when the concentration of alcohol reached about 11.0% v/v were able to stop the fermentative process in 50 hours and produce wines with about 55-57 g/L residual sugar and a final alcohol concentration of about 11.7% v/v. The microbiological analyses carried out on solid DRBCA medium to detect the viable yeast, expressed as colony forming units (CFU/mL), showed some differences between the classical technology for sweet wine production and the alternative treatments with MCFAs. At the moment of fermentation interruption, the active yeasts population in wine was on average of 1.98 ± 0.23 x 107 CFU/mL, in all tanks. After the fermentation stopped, no viable yeasts were detected in the limpid wines above the lees, irrespective of the treatment. In the wine sediments of MCFAs-treated variants a few viable yeasts/mL were still detected, while in the lees of control wines no viable yeast was present. Anyway, racking the wines with MCFAs-stopped fermentation from the lees will prevent any possibility of refermentation. The main advantages of these alternative treatments with MCFAs are that they do not require a reduction of temperature from 15 ºC to 8 ºC and, especially, that they necessitate a much lower dose of SO2 (in this case 60 mg/L instead of 150 mg/L)

An enhanced version of the D-Risk decision support webtool for multi-scale management of water abstraction and drought risks in irrigated agriculture

Due to it having the lowest priority for water allocation during drought events and the consequent agronomic and economic impacts of abstraction restrictions, UK irrigated agriculture has been identified as a key business sector ‘at risk’. An enhanced version of the D-Risk webtool has been developed to help agricultural stakeholders and catchment water managers to evaluate the joint multi-scale risks of abstraction restrictions (voluntary and mandatory) and having insufficient irrigation volumes during drought events. The webtool uses annual maximum potential soil moisture deficit as the agroclimate index to calculate monthly and annual volumetric irrigation demand for the selected crop mix, soil available water capacity and location. Simulated river flows are used to identify days not under abstraction restrictions. Annual probability distributions of irrigation deficit and licence utilisation (headroom) are derived from a monthly time-step water balance model that calculates whether the farm irrigation demand in each month can be met, taking account of river flow-based abstraction restrictions, daily and annual volumetric licensed abstraction limits, the licenced abstraction period(s) and any on-farm reservoir storage. The enhanced D-Risk tool provides a more holistic understanding of drought risk on irrigated agriculture from individual farm to catchment scales and supports improved collaborative decision-making regarding future water sharing, water trading and on-farm reservoir investment to reduce business vulnerability to drought and regulatory change

Think and Act: Reflective Tool for professionals working with families (TART). Summary version

The IO3 aims to help organise and articulate reflection by the professional who works with families in situations of vulnerability or that are at risk and encourages professionals to continue questioning themselves about the processes of accompanying families with a broad, systemic, and ecological perspective. - The content of TART (IO3) is focused on a series of specific challenges of attention and intervention with today’s families in Europe. These challenges are listed in the previous IO by describing situations (IO1) and mentioning the main challenges that were identified by the professionals, parents, and young people (IO2). - The tool can be used both by the direct care professionals themselves to address their own practice, as well as by professionals who are dedicated to supervising teams, or by professionals who guide the professional practices of university students

Think and Act: Reflective Tool for professionals working with families (TART)

This tool, Think and Act: Reflective Tool for Professionals working with Families (TART) (hereinafter TART) has been created within the framework of the Erasmus + Grow in Family Today project (hereinafter GIFT) (2018-FR01-KA202-0488115) with the participation of 4 European countries (France, Spain, Italy and Romania) represented by 4 entities and/or professional services that attend families in vulnerable situations (Caminante-FR, Consell Comarcal del Vallès Occidental-ESP, Casa di Ramia-IT and Holtis-RO) and the universities of 4 European countries (Pau et Pays de l’Adour University-UPPA-FR; Barcelona University and Lleida University-ESP; Padova University and Verona University-IT; Iasi University-RO). Within the framework of the GIFT project, two previous intellectual outputs have been created that are antecedents to and complement this current output. The first of them "Growing in family today: the challenge of diversity" addresses the issue of the family and the exercise of parenthood in the family today from the perspective of diversity, and identifies the main challenges in terms of intervention, defined by the components of the aforementioned partnership. The second output, entitled “Representations of growing in family today” focuses on the view held by families, fathers, mothers, sons and daughters, as well as professionals, of what it means to grow in a family today. Both intellectual outputs are antecedents of this third intellectual output and contribute valuable elements to nurture the reflective processes that are proposed here..

The effects of 6-weeks program of physical therapeutic exergames on cognitive flexibility focused by reaction times in relation to manual and podal motor abilities

The main purpose of the study was to identify the level of improvement in cognitive flexi-bility manifested by choice and cognition reaction times in relation to manual and podal skills as a result of the implementation of a program of therapeutic exergame exercises, for a time interval of 6 weeks at the level of students. 511 students participated in the cross-sectional study, of which 279 male (54.6%) and 232 female (45.4%), divided into two groups: the experimental group 266 (521%) subjects and the control group 245 (48%) sub-jects. The implementation of the experimental program comprising of 8 physical thera-peutic exergames took place for 6 weeks, in one session per week, within the physical edu-cation lessons, only for the male and female experimental groups. In the initial and final testing session, 2 standardized tests were applied: TMT part A, B and 2 tests adapted for this study: Square Test and 25 Squares Test. The progress registered by the male and fe-male experimental groups was statistically significant. In all tests, the experimental groups showed higher progress compared to the control groups. Depending on the gender differences, it was found that the male experimental and control groups made better pro-gress compared to the female groups in the following tests: TMT part A, Square Test, 25 Squares Tests. The implementation of a physical therapeutic exergame program deter-mined the improvement of cognitive flexibility man-ifested by choice and cognitive reac-tion times in conditions of manual and podal motor skills, demonstrating the effective-ness of exergame technologies adapted and implemented for prophy-lactic purpose